What Do Lines Moves Can Designate and How to Use It?

It is believed that to succeed in betting is quite enough to understand the sport. Of course, knowledge of the type of sports on which bets are made is very important, and even fundamental, but you can’t get away with the bare analytics.

For stable earnings in bookmakers you need something else, in particular, basic mathematical skills and the ability to read the bookmaker line. From today’s material you will learn how to understand the odds of bookmakers and get an advantage over the bookmaker.

How do bookmakers calculate odds?

When a player enters the betting shop and opens the right match, he sees many outcomes, each of which has its own odds. Few people wonder why bookmakers set particular odds, and why they are constantly changing.

Before publishing a sporting event in a line, analysts of bookmakers carefully study the chances of the teams and take into account the opinion of the majority of players. In fact, only the giants of the bookmaker world have their own analytical department, while other operators acquire the line from specialized firms, but this is not so important, just information for expanding knowledge.

That is, in order to form odds, analysts need to determine the probability of outcomes based on statistics and other pre-match information. And then make an adjustment, based on the opinion of the majority. The term “majority opinion” is necessary to understand the bets of players. In simple words, it is important for the bookmaker to predict what outcomes most betters will bet on.

Odds for supposedly more popular bets are underestimated, and for less demanded ones – they are rising to attract the attention of players. And, it is worth noting that the correct prediction of the flow of money is much more important for bookmakers than determining the chances of teams. After all, the bookmaker never sets a goal to give the most accurate forecast, for this organization the most important thing is to earn with any result.

Odds – an indicator that is inversely proportional to probability. If in a betting shop odds of 2.00 is given for a certain outcome, then, according to analysts, its probability is 50%. In order to translate it into a probability, it is enough to divide only 100% by the value of the odds. Therefore, the quotation 5.00 tells us that the probability is equal to 20%.

As bookmakers calculate the probability of an outcome, we can only assume, but it is known that the emphasis is on statistics. It is also not a secret for a long time that bookmakers never deviate from their algorithm, even if obviously erroneous quotations are set for a certain match. For them, it does not matter, they deliberately go to the financial risks in the case of some events, knowing that in the long run this approach guarantees a profit.

How to read a line of bookmakers?

It’s very difficult to compete with the bookmakers. They are better informed, besides laying a margin in the odds. At least for these two reasons, they have an advantage over the players. But this is not a sentence, you can win, as the experience of many experienced betters shows. As it is not difficult to guess, in order to make money on bets, it is necessary not only to level the advantage of bookmakers, but also to get at least a slight superiority. We will talk about this a little later, and now let us tell you what bookmaker margin is, putting bookmakers in a more advantageous position.

So, margin – a certain percentage of probability, which is laid by the bookmakers in the odds. If in a tennis match the chances of an athlete to win are equal, that is 50% to 50%, the odds should be 2.00 and 2.00. But for BS it is unprofitable. Imagine that $1000 was set for the victory of the first tennis player and $1000 for the victory of the second one. The first wins and the bookmaker pays out the winners of the money that was bet on Away. At the same time, the company itself remains with zero.

Bookmakers also took care of their profits in advance and came up with a margin, if you will, a percentage for their services. And instead of 2.00/2.00 they put up for the match somewhere 1.95/1.95. If we translate into probability, it turns out 51.28% and 51.28%. In the amount of 102.56%, while the total probability should be 100%. That is, the “extra” 2.56% is the margin.

Thus, instead of betting on a factor of 2.00, a player puts on 1.95 each. Since the odds are 50% to 50%, then in a hundred conditional matches of equal opponents each will have 50 wins. If you bet one tennis player to win one dollar each time, the player will win $47.5 and lose $50. More bets – more loss. From this it follows that it is necessary to bet on outcomes, the probability of occurrence of which is higher than the probability reflected by the odds.

In other words, it is necessary to bet on the money – outcomes underestimated by the bookmaker. This strategy is called value betting, and it is used by most successful players. Imagine that the Arsenal victory in a match against Leicester gives odds of 1.50. Is it profitable? We determine the probability of this outcome – having studied everything, we decided that the probability of Arsenal winning in this fight is 70%. Now we convert the odds into probability and we get: 100/1.50 = 66.7%.

It turns out that this outcome can be considered a value, and it is advantageous to bet on it, because in our opinion, the real probability of Arsenal’s victory is higher than the pledged odds. Therefore, this is a bet with a margin, giving the player an advantage in the long run. If, on the Arsenal win, the bookmakers give 1.40, then it is better to refuse the bet, because: 100/1.40 = 71.4%, which is higher than the probability we have. Yes, in this particular match, Arsenal can win, but out of ten he will win only 7, and therefore at the stakes by the factor of 1.40 we will go to minus.

This is a pure theory of probability, only one problem – you need to learn how to accurately calculate the probability. It is not easy, and this skill comes with experience. When you have knowledge in sports, you know how to determine probability and understand how to choose odds in a betting shop with an advantage, then you have good chances for final success.

And at the end it is important to say the most important thing – the odds of bookmakers on the same sporting event are different. And at the same time it is impossible to answer which bookmaker has the highest odds, since everything depends on the sport, tournament and match. Therefore, if you want to win more, register in several BS to be able to choose more profitable odds for each match.