Strategies and Systems Intended to Manage Your Bank

The betting strategy is an algorithm for selecting sports events. From what strategy you choose, your betting will depend in the future. Sports betting is not a lottery or slot machines, it’s a financial market with its own rules, a lot of numbers and the ability to correctly guide these figures. Consider popular financial strategies.

Consider these strategies. Initially, your bank is considered as a universal unit of 100%.

Classic flat

Classic flat implies proper distribution of bank to each bet so that even in the event of a long series of failures (loose streak) you stay afloat. With classic flat, it is recommended to allocate for each bet a certain part of the bank, optimally from 1 to 10 percent. And in case of changing the common bank, the amount of the next bet is calculated based on the size of the initial bank, and not the one that turned out.

Let’s consider an example:

Your bank before the first bet is 50 000 dollars. You did an analysis or got a forecast from an advanced capper that Barcelona will win the game with Real Madrid. Suppose that the bookmaker on this event offers a coefficient of 1.80. You decided that you are ready to allocate 5% of your bank for this bet – it is 2500 dollars. Let Barcelona win, and you won 2500х1.80 – 2500 = 2000 dollars clean. Now your bank is 52 000 dollars.

Bet      Coefficient   Profit     Bank

2500       1.8            +2000    52000

2500       1.8            +2000    54000

2500       1.8            +2000    56000

Progressive flat

You decided to make another bet, which is also quite confident and ready to allocate 10% of the bank for this event. In the case of classic flat, you will consider these 5% namely from 50 thousand dollars, that is, from the initial bank, and not from 52 thousand and you will bet 2500 dollars. In the case of progressive flat, the interest of the bet is calculated from the final, new bank, that is, from 52 thousand dollars. That is, if you chose a progressive flat for yourself, then you will bet already 2600 dollars.

Bet Coefficient  Profit    Bank

2500      1.8      +2000   52000

2600      1.8      + 2080  54080

2704      1.8      + 2.163  56243

For beginners we recommend classic flat, as this is a time-tested scheme. You need to start, as mentioned above, with $5000. Then bet $250 on all events, and for a particularly confident $500 until the bank is $20000. Further we change the size of our flat to 1000 dollars (5%) and 2000 dollars (10%) until we reach the new control point, it is about 50 thousand dollars. To use the progressive flat requires more experience and skill.

Ladder

When you bet the entire allocated bank for each event – this is called a ladder. Each new bet is called a step.

Example: your bank is 5000 dollars. You chose the outcome with a coefficient of 1.5 and bet $5000. When you win, the bank will increase to 7500 dollars. On the next bet bet already 7,500 dollars and so on.

Bet  Coefficient  Profit    Bank

5000       1.5      + 2500  7500

7500       1.5      +3750    11250

11250     1.5       +5625    16845

A clear example of how we made $65,000 from 30,000 dollars in 30 minutes.

Tips for using the ladder:

Select 2 banks for $5000. Why two? So it is safer and in case of force majeure, you can start anew once.

Set a specific goal to increase the bank by 2-3 times. Then stop;

Bet only on confident forecasts. Acceptable coefficients 1.2-1.3 or expresses from 2 events with finite coefficients of 1.5-1.6.

We recommend using ladder as an additional financial strategy for bets and only on the most confident events.

Covering bets and arbs

It is difficult to name arbs and cover bets by a financial strategy, but we will still consider this method.

If during the match you see that the outcome, on which you bet money, does not pass, then we bet on the opposite event.

Example:

Final Australian Open 2017 Federer vs. Nadal. Before the match, bookmakers preferred Nadal and the coefficient for his victory was 1.6, and Federer 2.35. Those who bet on Federer, in the last set could watch the coefficient jump to win of Nadal to 4-5, as Federer led in the score.

Accordingly, it was possible to take the victory of Nadal with a coefficient greater than 2 and have a guaranteed victory.

Not every betting shop will give you such a turn, but no one bans placing in several shops.

We do not recommend you to climb into arbs, as bookmakers successfully find players who earn big money on this and cut their bills. However, covering matches in live in different shops is a useful practice if you are sure that your bet will not pass.

Martingale

Let’s consider an example:

You lost $1000. You want to quickly play this amount and for the next forecast with a coefficient, for example, 1.5 bet $2000. When you win, you get $3000, thereby playing out a loss of $1000.

Bet    Coefficient  Profit    Bank

1000        1.5      -1000    9000

2000        1.5      +1000  10000

Unfortunately, this scheme does not work. No matter what your bank is, sooner or later you will lose everything. Exodus one – the bookmaker will bet you limits, and you just can’t physically use Martingale. With classic or progressive flat you are not afraid of a series of defeats.

Also Martingale at constant increase of bets presses on you emotionally. A real example from life is the “History of winning 900 000 dollars and loss of the bank for 1 day”, where the player lost all his money just because he could not stop in time.

Martingale’s financial strategy in sports betting means that each new bet after the defeat increases exactly 2 times. And you need to bet on the coefficients more than 2, to win back a number of cons.

Bet   Coefficient Profit Bank

1000       2        -1000  9000

2000       2        -2000  7000

4000       2        +5000 12000

Like Martingale, it is better not to use this strategy.

The strategy of d’Alembert

The essence is similar to Martingale’s strategy. Only when winning the next bet is reduced by X, and with a loss increase by X.

Example:

The initial bank is 10000 dollars, and for X we take 100 dollars. The first bet is 10% of the bank. Suppose it does not pass. The bank has 9000 dollars. The next bet will be 1100 dollars. If it passed, then 900 dollars.

Bet Coefficient Profit    Bank

1000       2        -1000   9000

1100       2        + 1100 10100

1000       2        +1000  11100

900         2        + 900   12000

800         2         -800    11200

900         2

The strategy is suitable when the patency is more than 70% and there are no several minuses in a row.

Danish betting strategy

Danish betting strategy is an improved model of Martingale’s popular strategy. The difference is that when playing on Martingale after an unsuccessful forecast it is necessary to increase the amount of the following. Danish system provides for a proportional increase not only in the amount of a bet, but also in the coefficient, until the full cycle is completed.

To earn on this system you need:

• Increase the size of each next bet by the amount originally set;
• After unsuccessful forecasts, coefficients of the next should be increased by 0.5;
• The initial bet should be no more than 1/20 of the bankroll;
• Otherwise, the risk of losing all funds is increased.

Rules in the example:

Let the bankroll be 60000 dollars, the first bet is 3000, and the coefficient is 1.5. If the initial bet wins, then the net profit is 1500. In this case, the bankroll will be: 60000 + 1500 = 61500. There is no, the second forecast is made for the event with a coefficient of 2.0, and its amount is 60000. If again losing, the third forecast is done with a coefficient of 2.5 and a sum of 9000. The increase continues until the player wins. After the end of the cycle, go back to the coefficient of 1.5 and the bet of 3000.

From the table below it is clear that after the cycle is over, the net profit was 6000 dollars, and the gain occurred after the fourth forecast.

Forecast Amount   Coefficient     Result          Outcomes

1               3000          1.5               Failure         60000 – 3000 = 57000

2               6000          2.0              Failure         57000 – 6000 = 51000

3               9000          2.5              Failure          51000 – 9000 = 42000

4               12000        3.0             Winnings   42000 + 24000 = 66000

Kelly Criterion

This financial strategy is suitable only for experienced players who can determine the probability of winning an event.

For example, we rely on the victory of the Golden State Warriors team based on the analytics of the last 10 matches and the last 5-6 meetings with the upcoming rival. We see that the Golden State at home won 8 of 10 matches, and through personal meetings with the opponent: 4 wins and 2 losses, and all matches at home were won. We also take into account the motivation of the team and the upcoming team.

Suppose we have defined a probability of victory equal to 75% (you need to understand that the figure is arbitrary and each player determines it for himself). The bank is 50 000 dollars. Coefficient on event is 1.4.

The Kelly equation is as follows:

The coefficient of the event is multiplied by the probability of passage and subtracted 1:

1.4 * 0.75 – 1 = 0.05

Divide this value by a factor minus 1:

0.05 / (1.4-1) = 0.125

Multiply the obtained value by the size of the bank:

50000 * 0.125 = 6250

This method allows you to more accurately determine the size of the bet, depending on the probability of its passage.

Miller Management

Miller’s strategy implies compliance with a number of conditions:

The coefficient for the event to be placed must be above 1.91;

The passage of bets is more than 52.5%;

The size of a bet is 1% of the initial bank;

As soon as the bank increases by 25%, the 1% bet is considered from the new bank and so after each bank increase by 25%.

Let’s say your bank is 100 000 dollars. Bets are always 1000 dollars per factor from 1.91. When your bank grows to $125,000, then you need to bet $1,250 until the bank increases to $150,000, and so on.

Bank    Interest  Bet

100000      1     1000

125000      1     1250

150000      1     1500

175000      1     1750

200000      1     2000

The Monty Hall Paradox

The paradox of Monty Hall, in essence, shows the position of the player when choosing any outcome.

Example:

There are 3 doors in front of you. Behind one door there is a car, and behind the other two there are goats. Your chance to pick up the car is 33.3%. But, before the presenter opens the door that you have chosen, he opens one of those two that you did not choose, and there is a goat. Now you can either save the selection you originally specified or change it to another closed door. What is the probability of your victory? In any case, 50 to 50?

No. That’s not correct.

If you change the choice, then the probability of your victory is 66%.

Conclusion

You can, for educational purposes, try out all the strategies and choose the most suitable for yourself. It is better to use classic flat everywhere and progressive flat for more experienced players.

Make predictions with the mind and improve every day!