Sports Betting as Profitable Investments

There are such game strategies as middling and siding, which are based on the anomalies of the betting market.  However, the effective use of them is not so simple as the use of arbs and they carry a greater share of the risk.

Middling and siding are strategies that are based on the difference in forging lines, whereas arbs are based on the difference in coefficients.  Since the handicap lines are most often found in American sports and are most popular with American players, the middleling is also obliged by its name to the English word “middle”, and “siding” to the word “party”.

Imagine a situation when the standard line of Chicago – Dallas +6. 5 opens, which by and large is designed to share the opinion of players and to balance the cash flows relative to it.

It is clear that the coefficients for winning these teams are the same, and once the line is standard, then they are 1.91 or -110 according to the American coefficient system, which means “risk 110 to win 100”.

Let’s say that during a certain time large flows of money from players are placed on Chicago, the line becomes unbalanced, as a result of which the office starts risking its money.  This situation forces the office to offer better conditions for players who want to take Dallas with a handicap, and the worst for those players who want to bet on Chicago.  She can do this in two ways: either reduce the payout odds for Chicago and simultaneously raise the odds for Dallas, or leave the coefficients unchanged, but increase the handicap in favor of Dallas.  In reality, much more often the offices change the number of handicaps than the coefficients (although offices with a very low commission change both the coefficient and the handicap), so let’s say the new number for the handicap will be +6 with constant coefficients.

Improving the conditions for those players who want to bet on Chicago, imagine that the office has not managed to reduce its risks and better balance the line, and it still runs the risk.  Now she will have to improve the handicap in favor of Dallas and she made her +5. 5.

For example, one of the players, let’s call him John, first decided that it was worth taking Chicago +6. 5 and he bet $ 110 on it.  Then he changed his mind and decided to make the juice out – that is, take off the position by paying the Whig (in this case 4. 55%) and bet on Dallas with a handicap.  At that moment, he saw that the Dallas -6. 5 proposal was no longer there, so he took Dallas -6.

Approximately the same situation happened to a player named Bill: he bet $ 110 to Chicago +6. 5, but when he changed his mind and decided to withdraw his position, having paid the commission, he saw that it was possible to take Dallas -5. 5.

The match is over.  Dallas won exactly with a difference of 6 points.

Thus, John bet $ 110 for Chicago +6. 5 and Dallas -6.  The first bet won and John earned $ 100, the second went into spending and he was returned 110 dollars.

This is an example of a siding where, with a favorable outcome, one side wins, and the other goes into a flow, and in an unfavorable outcome, one side wins, the other wins, and the player simply pays a commission.

Bill, put $ 110 for Chicago +6. 5 and Dallas -5. 5, so both of his bets won.  He received a net profit of $ 100 * 2 = $ 200.

This is an example of middling, when, with a favorable outcome, a player wins both bets on opposite outcomes, with the unfavorable outcome, only one bet wins and he pays the commission as in the case with the siding.

Of course, this example is exaggerated and sketchy, as it all happened quite by accident, and neither John nor Bill expected to win, but wanted to simply withdraw the bet with a small loss.

The basis of conscious professional middling and siding lies in statistics and mathematics.  Since the standard commission of the office is 4. 55%, in order not to lose with a long game using siding, we must win more than 4. 55% * 2 = 9. 1% of cases and in the case of middling we should win more than 4. 55% of cases.

Therefore, the general rule for these strategies is this: if you are confident that the probability that a given match will end exactly with a given handicap or in a given range of odds, and this probability is greater than the commission of the office, then bet on the opposite outcomes and you will be in a long-term plus.

In this case, it is not necessary to wait until the number of handicaps begins to change in this office.  You can find a simultaneous difference to this event in different offices, which is much more common.  Also, under the specified range of forms, it means that the player for the win will need to “hit” in a certain interval of numbers, and not guess one number.  Imagine that the ford line in the Chicago-Dallas match has shifted to +3. 5, and you will realize that with the first bet on Chicago +6. 5 and the second on Dallas -3. 5, you get a range for the middling of three numbers: 4, 5, 6 points.

Middlers are well-versed in various situations and know sports statistics.  For example, about a third of all matches in American football end with a difference equal to just one of the five so-called key numbers: 3, 7, 4, 6, 1.  This is primarily due to the specifics of maintaining an account in this sport.

Similar rules middlery able to derive and other sports: basketball, hockey and so on.

In fact, the middles closely monitor the situation with the lines of fores in various offices.  Most of the time, they lose, losing at each bet the amount equivalent to the commission of the office, but then there are individual wins, which more than offset the previous losses. . .

It is difficult to deduce rules for all sports and for all cases – therefore, to say that it is easy to be a midler or a saider is easy.  But still the loss is limited, you can stop at any moment, the system is logical and it is generally better than countless frankly bad strategies.

There is another strategy that can be confused with both arbs and middles, since it is somewhat similar – outwardly.  It is called corridors (or pants).

Imagine that the odds line for the Chicago-Dallas match is +6. 5 with odds of 1. 91, and at the same time, the other bureau offered the offer in the usual line: Chicago – Dallas 2. 9 – 1. 3.

The player decides to take Chicago +6. 5 in the first office and a clean Chicago victory in another office with a coefficient of 2. 9.  It turns out that the player will win only when he wins Chicago.  In this case, he will win both the first bet and the second.  If he bet $ 100 on both events, if he wins Chicago he will get: 100 * 1. 91 + 100 * 2. 9 = 481 dollars or 281 dollars of net profit.

If Chicago loses with a difference of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 points, then the player will lose the second bet and win the first.  His losses will be relatively small and amount to only $ 9: -100 + 91 = -9 dollars.  But if Dallas wins with a difference greater than 7 points, then the player will lose both bets and lose $ 200.

Another strategy that players use online is called Steam.  (“Steam” -angle steam).  It is also based on constant monitoring of lines from different offices and “following” for wise guys.  There are syndicates, which are based on groups of professionals of very high class and the sizes of bets at them are very great, therefore often they with their bets change lines on many events.  Therefore, the stylists sit in front of the monitor screen and wait for the line to “sprinkle” in one of the key offices and then they put it on an unchanged line to the other one from the offices, trying to imitate the syndicates and follow them.  With this strategy, as with arbs, you also need a lot of speed, certain skills and knowledge.  In general, offices do not like stymers and can close their doors to such players as they with their money create a lot of imbalances in the lines and at the same time, good syndicates receive a long-term plus.

Value betting – one of the strategies, which is based on the bets on the bookmaker’s underestimated events.

In general, in sports betting, you have one right way to win at the bets after a long game – this is to bet on an undervalued event or overvalued.  So, value betting is basically the bet on undervalued events.  Since much more often the offices underestimate the outsiders, in practice value betting means bet against favorites and bets with high coefficients.

In order to find an object for a bet, you need to evaluate the probability of this event in percent as accurately as possible and compare it with the odds of the bookmaker.  The following condition must be satisfied:

Coefficient of Office * Probability of Exit> 1,

where the Probability of Exodus is expressed in percentages or in the range of numbers from 0 to 1.

If you see an offer in the office for Real Madrid – Barcelona match to win Anji, equal to 10. 0, and at the same time think that Anji has a 13% chance of winning, then 10. 0 * 0. 13 = 1. 3> 1, then this event will be a bet on strategy of the valya.

As you can see, in order to effectively use this strategy, you “just” need to learn how to evaluate the

As you can see, in order to effectively use this strategy, you “just” need to learn how to evaluate the probability of an event in percent with the maximum accuracy.

Therefore, your bets can be very illogical at first glance.  In practice, it is not so easy to assess the various errors and express everything in percentages, and these errors in assessments are the main problem in the application of this strategy.  Also, this kind of betting requires focusing on a long game, because you can sit in the red for months, until, finally, the mathematical laws work and not play a lot of “illogical” bets.

In general, it does not matter which factor the bureau offers and the valuation bet can even be on the coefficient of 1. 1, but, as a rule, this has its own logic, the bureaus pre-cut the coefficients on the obvious favorites beforehand, so the average betting odds odds can be 4. 0-5. 0, and the losing series can be 20-30 events in a row! This is not a simple test for any player, so it’s better to train your abilities on paper and making sure that you are fairly accurate in the assessments, start applying this strategy in practice.

Hedging is not just a strategy – as an auxiliary device and a kind of insurance.  We have already considered hedging on arbs when it helps us to reduce risks in the event of a change in the coefficients in one of the offices.

There are other situations.  Say, you “built” a large express of 10 events with a total odds of 20. 00.  And you already won 9 events on the express train, and there was only one match left.  Of course, if this last element in the express does not play, it will be very unpleasant, so one of the outputs can be set a certain amount on the opposite outcome and get a quite definite profit.

There may also be a situation where you at the beginning of the season bet on the winner of the tournament with a large coefficient, and your team reached the final.  Of course, the right decision, however, based on emotions, can be such a decision as to bet on the opposite outcome and get a very definite profit.  Although from a professional point of view, knowing that all events are independent, and your subsequent decisions should not depend on what happened before, the hedging is in many cases incorrect for a long game.