Real Advice on how to Make Correct Predictions without any Information

Despite the fact that all the gambling articles and betting experts emphasize the importance of information, there can occur events that had no precedents. They are both a real sensation and a huge challenge for those trying to predict their outcomes. Since such events are unique, it is impossible to analyze previous statistics or guess the future course of events.

Here, we can provide an example of the fight between McGregor and Mayweather. Yes, such events are rare, but they do happen. That is why gamblers should utilize an approach different from that for usual sports events.

Usually, the prediction is said to be a quantitative science. Thus, gamblers analyze previous information and try to make predictions concerning the future. This approach is widely applied, for instance, in forecasting and football betting. On the other hand, when you do not have any previous record, you are to apply the qualitative analysis that is based on creating reasonable arguments. Yes, it can resemble a simple intuition, but there are some rules that can make it a scientific idea also known as the Fermi method.

Enrico Fermi was a famous physicist who obtained the worldwide fame for creating the first nuclear reactor. Thus, 1938 witnessed as he won the Nobel Prize in Physics. Creating a nuclear reactor, however, was not the only his achievement since he also developed the above-mentioned approach to quantify something that is said to be impossible to calculate. And the most interesting thing here is that it is necessary to ask only a few questions to arrive at a conclusion. Thus, let us calculate without any background knowledge how many piano tuners work in Chicago. At first, the question seems to be a trick; however, there are some tips that can help you to obtain a correct conclusion.

For this, you should answer four following questions:

• Q1: How many pianos are there in Chicago?
• Q2: How often must a piano be tuned every year?
• Q3: How long does it take to tune a piano?
• Q4: How many hours a year does the average piano tuner work?

Prior to guessing the answers for the sub-questions stated above, let us create the formula that will be able to tell the answer to the main question. Thus, the formula is as follows:

(Q1*Q2*Q3) / Q4

As you can see, it is rather simple to make all the necessary calculations. Here, multiplying answers of the first three questions will tell you how many work hours might be spent for tuning pianos in Chicago every year. Thus, dividing the obtained result by the answer of Question four is said to provide us with an approximate amount of piano tuners working in Chicago.

Yes, it is virtually impossible to correctly answer all the questions, but implying your logic and some related statistical information can give you a certain assistance. As for Question 1, let us imagine that the Chicago’s population is about 2.5 million, and two for every 100 citizens own a piano. In this case, we can guess that there can be found 50,000 pianos in the city.

As for Questions 2 and 3, let us consider an average information found over the Internet. Usually, it takes about two hours a year to tune a piano. To obtain the answer to Question 4, let us find out how many hours a year an average American citizen works. As a rule, the figure is about 1,600. Thus, we have obtained all the variables and can apply them to the formula:

(50,000*1*2) / 1,600 = 100,000 / 1,600 = 62.5

So, we have received the answer, and if we take a look at official statistics we can be quite surprised. According to the official information, there are 83 piano tuners in Chicago. As we can see, the figures are not much different, and it is possible to place Over/Under bets here.

Conclusion

So, you can see that the given approach can be applied when you need to make a prediction concerning an event with no precedents. To tell the truth, questions similar to that about piano tuners are often asked by Google while they are interviewing candidates, which is made to assess candidates’ reasoning skills.