How to Calculate Margin in Betting?
Interest, share, commission, margin, penalty are variations of the name of the deductions that the bookmaker receives, depending on the coefficients set. Each office has a margin, as it is its main income.
The size of the commission (margin) in individual offices may differ – it all depends on the bookmaker model, the amount of money delivered and some other factors. Sometimes you can find a proposal for improved quotes – for individual events or for bets via express.
So what is bookmaking in general? How to calculate it? How will the commission size affect your profit? We will try to find all the answers in this article.
What is the bookmaker’s margin?
Some think that bookmakers themselves are at risk when they put up odds. Constantly you can find phrases like:
“Oh, lol, Real Madrid lost, here the beeches are upset, ruined probably. ”
But it is not so.
It is clear that bookmakers expose the baseline (coefficients) after analyzing all the main factors (team / athlete strength, form, motivation, and so on). But over time, depending on the news related to the event and the amount of money that players put, quotes are adjusted.
The bookmaker’s task is to ensure that the players bet on opposite results (Home, X, Away) in proportion to the coefficients.
Simply put, if there are odds of 1. 90-1. 90 in a tennis match, then the ideal situation for a bookmaker is that if the same amount is placed on both outcomes. If the odds are 1. 2-4. 0, then it will be ideal for a bookmaker if the players put $ 1,000 for 1. 2 and $ 300 for 4. 0. Why? 1,2 * 1000 = 1200. 4 * 3 = 1200.
- We make dozens of free sports predictions every day.
How does the bookie make money from this?
Due to margin. You in fact have noticed, that at equal chances of tennis players we have resulted in an example of a combination of factors 1. 90-1. 90, instead of 2. 0-2. 0. The margin is understood as the percentage of the bank delivered to a certain market.
The size of the commission can go down or rise for even 1 day – it all depends on the bookmaker’s profit in the market. The office is very difficult to achieve the ideal distribution of funds in all markets. Therefore, sometimes the margin artificially increases.
- Find the best odds for sports betting.
What is a fair market?
An honest or fair market is a market in which there is no bookmaking margin. For example, the best way to bring a match or an event in which the chances of winning teams / athletes are equal. That is, they estimate as 50-50%.
We will not delve into the sport, but as an example we use the usual toss of a coin. The statistical chance of falling each side (eagle or tails) is 50%. If the betting company had no margin at this event, the odds would look like this:
- New predictions for soccer, tennis, hockey, basketball, etc. are created every hour.
o Eagle -2. 0;
o Tail – 2. 0.
That is, if you had correctly predicted which side a coin would drop, you would increase your bet by half.
But you will not see in any bookmaker’s office the odds of 2. 0-2. 0 for an equiprobable outcome. The maximum is 1. 99-1. 99 (this is almost never found anywhere).
- Take a look at the freebets offered by the bookmaker.
Sometimes you can stumble on 1,97-1,97 or 1,98-1,98. It is very rarely proposed equiprobable coefficients even in the range of 1. 94-1. 96. A good indicator is already 1. 90-1. 90. But where more often do I offer offices at 1. 85-1. 85.
That is, instead of increasing your winnings by 2 times, you increase it by only 185%. And the mathematical expectation of your bets is negative. It is on this bookmaker’s office and earn their money.
- What can you bet on today? The answer is here.
Calculation of the bookmaker’s margin
Now that we know what a fair market is and what a margin is, we can proceed to direct calculations. This is a fairly simple process. Experienced players can determine the margin “by eye”, simply by looking at the coefficients, and without making any calculations.
To calculate the margin, it is convenient to translate the coefficients into percentage probability. To do this, you need to divide the unit by your quotation. For example, if the coefficient is 1. 65, then the percentage probability will be 1 / 1. 65 = 0. 606 or 60. 6%.
- No questions? Place a bet now.
Let’s give an example. Take a football match with the following odds:
o Home – 2. 00;
o X 3. 5;
o Away – 3. 9.
Now we translate them into probabilities:
o Home: 1 / 2. 00 = 0. 5 or 50%;
o X: 1 / 3. 5 = 0. 286 or 28. 6%;
oway: 1 / 3. 9 = 0. 256 or 25. 6%.
Market margin: 50 + 28. 6 + 25. 6 = 104. 2%. And now we will calculate the average margin for each bet in this market:
Margin = (1- (1 / market margin)) * 100 = (1- (1 / 1. 042)) * 100 = (1-0. 96) * 100 = 4%.
- Follow the link and get your prediction before the match starts.
The average margin on the market is 4%. This means that with every $ 100 put you will “give” the bookmaker $ 4. For equiprobable opposite outcomes at 4%, the coefficients will be 1. 92-1. 92.
How to bet on odds with low margins?
Naturally, to consider the margin of each market is insanity. But there are several ways to bet on the lowest margin. The simplest of them is to refuse offices and go to stock exchanges. There is no margin on the stock exchanges. There is only a commission for winning.
- Go to a bookmaker and place your bets right now.
In the most popular stock exchange in the world, players pay about 6. 5% of the commission with a win. On exchanges like Smarkets and Matcbook, the commission does not exceed 3%.
But with the bets on the stock exchange there are some nuances. There are illiquid markets where there is almost no activity. Quotations can be understated by speculators or bots. The bet can be accepted in part and so on.
- Free sports predictions 24 hours a day.
There is one more solution – to use programs and services that monitor coefficients. With their help, you will always know which office is the most attractive offer on the market. Subscription to similar services is paid, but costs a little (a few dollars a month). However, you also need to have deposits in several offices to make bets in this way.
Bookmaker’s margin: let’s sum up
Margin is a universal tool for the bookmaker’s office for making money. It is she who makes the bookmaker business so profitable. In this article we have clearly shown how just a few percent of the commission can affect the profitability of the players. Have it in view of – otherwise you can lose your hard earned money.