American Football: Bets and Their Features

American football is most popular in the US, although bets on this sport are made all over the world.  In the States, the popularity of the National Football League (NFL) begins to overtake such American sports as basketball, hockey and baseball.

The NFL is divided into 8 divisions, each of which includes 4 teams. During a short regular season (from September to February, all teams play 16 fights (8 home games and 8 exit teams), and at the end of the season the 12 clubs that score the most points take part in the playoffs, the final match of which became the most popular event not only in USA, but also in many other countries of the world.

A small prolonged season complicates bets on this sport: there are too few matches that give a correct assessment of the potential of each team.  But there are many lovers who, having some experience, are able to turn this disadvantage into advantage.

American handicap

Especially popular in American football is Spread betting, or the so-called American handicap, which is a bet on the winner, taking into account the handicap Point spread (which means a difference in points).  Thanks to this bookmakers, it is possible to balance the chances of clubs of different levels, thus compensating the underdogs for the missing points to the detriment of the favorite teams.

In other words, the bookmaker predicts the winner’s victory with a certain difference in points, called point spread.  They are deducted from the favorite and transferred to the account of an outsider.

Bet on the favorite wins if he wins with a difference greater than what was predicted by the bookie.  The bet on the outsider wins if he wins, reduces the match in a draw or loses, but with a smaller difference than predicted by the bookie.

We will tell on an example.

On betting sites, sports betting can be seen in the following form: Chicago Beards -3. 5 against Dallas Cowboys +3. 5.  It follows that after a bet on Chicago, the team must win at least 4 points, so that your bet wins.  If your choice fell on Dallas, then your bet will win if he loses no more than 3 points or wins.

We can say that bettors bet that the difference in points will be less than the difference that the bookmaker pointed out, as if predicting the victory or defeat of the team under certain conditions.

Spread for bears in our case is -3. 5, as bookmakers estimate in 50% probability of Chicago’s success with 5 or more points and their defeat without a set of 4 points.

It would be logical to reflect the odds on the coefficients.  However, for the players it would be too easy, therefore bookmakers 2,00 give more often 1. 91 to both teams.  And from this it follows that in order to get a plus we need to win at least 52. 2% of the bets on this spread, which is not easy in the NFL.  But a good result is considered to be 56% of successful bets on a long distance.

Such a thin line between losing and winning in the situation with American football forces players to learn a lot and carefully calculate the chances of success.

Key figures in the NFL

What do key numbers mean? They represent the difference in goals and points (winning margin) between teams at the end of the match. When making bets on NFL games, it is necessary to take into account key figures.

The most common difference in points is considered to be 3, 7 and 10.  For the last several decades every third game in the NFL ends with such a difference.

What is it for?

Given that 16% of the NFL matches over the last 20 game seasons have a 3-point winning margin, the player can much better understand the difference between the spread bets 2. 5 and 3. 5. And also 6. 5 and 7. 5 points.

If such a number of matches ends with a difference of 3, 7 and 10 points, then the difference between spread 2. 5 and 3. 5 will have a greater value than the difference between 4. 5 and 5. 5.  And this all happens despite the fact that in both cases it is only one point.  In the first case, it is more significant than 2 points between spread 10. 5 and 12. 5.

In other words: suppose that the bookmaker appointed for Washington Redskinspread 3. 5.  Since the difference in 3 points is often encountered, these 0. 5 points, which will be received by the team in addition to their three, will have for the bettor much more than 0. 5 points for a spread of 5 or 8 points, since similar differences in glasses are not found often.

Advantages of home games in American football

Experience shows that when a match is played at a home stadium, the home team advantage is at least 3 points.  If the spreadsheet in the betting shop is -3, then it means that the experts equate the chances of winning the guests and the hosts by adding the first 3 points.

Consequently, odds of 6 points are quite common in American football.  For example, the home team in the betting shop will have -3, but the same team, playing a guest, gets +3 points.

In all this you can get confused, but there is an easy way to determine the real odds of your bet on winning, in other words, value.  Change mentally the commands in places and use the method of 6 points.  Let’s look at this method using the Miami-Cleveland fight as an example.  Of course, the spread for Miami will be -4. 5, but if the game was played on the Cleveland field, then this spread would be +1. 5.

Moving the place of the match to the opponent’s field, you can assess the chances of teams from the other side.  This method allows the player to establish the real value of the coefficients that the bookmaker has placed, and, as a consequence, the possibility of winning the bet.

Bets on the underdog in American football

Most bettors betting on the NFL, choose the bet on the favorites. But just for outsiders bookmakers give a big plus spread, which implies an advantage over the teams-favorites.  If the player has a good nervous system, then he can easily bet on outsiders with high odds and win good money.

Let’s look at the statistics.  Over the past decade, there have been big spreads for up to 10 points for outsiders, and most of the matches ended in the victory of outsiders (54%).  Of course, playing only on outsiders is very dangerous, but thanks to the support of bookmakers there is a positive trend.

As a rule, newcomers are afraid to bet on weak teams, but we’ll look again at statistics: even in home games bookmakers give outsiders a powerful spread of +7 points, and this again gives them a serious advantage.  In addition, in 60% of cases, the favorites are defeated!

It is interesting that the vast majority of matches ends in the victory of outsiders, no matter what.  Let’s make an easy calculation: if you make 10 bets on an outsider, and only three of them win, then the player may well stay in the black, but if you bet on the favorite in this scenario, they are likely to send the deepest minus.

From the outsider to favorites

Situations in which outsiders are suddenly transformed and begin to triumph over strong teams are much more common in American football than other sports.  If you read the statistics of 10 previous seasons, you can see that more than 50% of bets on already ex-outsiders won with +14 and higher.  But along with this becoming a favorite, the team was already deprived of support, and by the poet the percentage of victories was getting lower.

What is the reason for this behavior of bookmakers? Everything is obvious, as well as the largest part of the players, they do not expect a victory from overt outsiders, especially on a visit.  For example, after seeing the team’s failure match a week ago, they will put a cross on it, which will give powerful spreads.